Also contributing was the degree of weather station coverage.Data interpolation between stations contributed some uncertainty, as did the process of standardizing data that was collected with different methods at different points in history.
https:// Sources and flow patterns of deep‐ocean waters as deduced from potential temperature, salinity, and initial phosphate concentration https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/JC090i C04p06925 1986 Carbon Cycle: 1985 Glacial to Interglacial Changes in the Operation of the Global Carbon Cycle https:// Hydrography, chemistry, and radioisotopes in the Southeast Asian basins https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/JC091i C12p14345 1987 Unpleasant surprises in the greenhouse?
https:// 1988 New evidence from the South China Sea for an abrupt termination of the last glacial period https:// Can the Greenland Climatic Jumps be Identified in Records from Ocean and Land?
“Uncertainty is important to understand because we know that in the real world we don’t know everything perfectly,” said Gavin Schmidt, director of GISS and a co-author on the study.
“All science is based on knowing the limitations of the numbers that you come up with, and those uncertainties can determine whether what you’re seeing is a shift or a change that is actually important.” The study found that individual and systematic changes in measuring temperature over time were the most significant source of uncertainty.
Taken together, Schmidt said, the two studies help establish GISTEMP as a reliable index for current and future climate research.
“Each of those is a way in which you can try and provide evidence that what you’re doing is real,” Schmidt said."Normal" is defined as the average during a baseline period of 1951-80.NASA uses GISTEMP in its annual global temperature update, in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.Comparing two measurements that were similar but recorded in very different ways ensured that they were independent of each other, Schmidt said.One difference was that AIRS showed more warming in the northernmost latitudes.“We’re testing the robustness of the method itself, the robustness of the assumptions, and of the final result against a totally independent data set.” In all cases, he said, the resulting trends are more robust than what can be accounted for by any uncertainty in the data or methods. A list of climate related papers where Wally Broecker (1931-2019) is the first author: 1957 Lamont Natural Radiocarbon Measurements IV https:// 1958 The relation of deep sea sedimentation rates to variations in climate Radiocarbon chronology of Lake Lahontan and Lake Bonneville https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/gsa/gsabulletin/article-abstract/69/8/1009/5015 1959 Re-evaluation of the salt chronology of several Great Basin Lakes https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/gsa/gsabulletin/article-abstract/70/5/601/5108 Lamont Radiocarbon Measurements VI https:// 1960 Evidence for an abrupt change in climate close to 11,000 years ago Natural radiocarbon in the Atlantic Ocean https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/JZ065i009p02903 1965 Uranium-Series Dating of Corals and Oolites from Bahaman and Florida Key Limestones Radiocarbon Chronology of Lake Lahontan and Lake Bonneville II, Great Basin https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/gsa/gsabulletin/article-abstract/76/5/537/5914 1968 Milankovitch Hypothesis Supported by Precise Dating of Coral Reefs and Deep-Sea Sediments In Defense of the Astronomical Theory of Glaciation https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-1-935704-38-6_14 1970 Insolation changes, ice volumes, and the O18 record in deep‐sea cores https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/RG008i001p00169 1975 Climatic Change: Are We on the Brink of a Pronounced Global Warming?(In 2019, NASA and NOAA found that 2018 was the fourth-warmest year on record, with 2016 holding the top spot.) The index includes land and sea surface temperature data back to 1880, and today incorporates measurements from 6,300 weather stations, research stations, ships and buoys around the world.Previously, GISTEMP provided an estimate of uncertainty accounting for the spatial gaps between weather stations.Like other surface temperature records, GISTEMP estimates the temperatures between weather stations using data from the closest stations, a process called interpolation.Quantifying the statistical uncertainty present in those estimates helped researchers to be confident that the interpolation was accurate.