Dissertations On Business Cycles

Dissertations On Business Cycles-84
In the first chapter, written with Nicolas Crouzet, we ask whether news shocks, which change agents' expectations about future fundamentals, are an important source of business-cycle fluctuations.The existing literature has provided a wide range of answers, finding that news shocks can account for 10 percent to 60 percent of the volatility of output.

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These findings provide empirical evidence of a causal role of confidence in producing macroeconomic fluctuations. is shown to be procyclical with respect to current economic conditions (negative unemployment shocks) and rise in response to consumer expectation and stock price news shocks - representing expected wealth effects anticipated by households.

The second theme studies household fertility decisions in relation to business cycles and underlying labor market institutions. However, fertility is shown to be countercyclical with respect to highly transitory TFP shocks – such that couples choose to have children during recessions when the opportunity cost (forgone wages) is lower, i.e.

Although it is right that until 1979 these contributions were still in their infancy, the turn in the debates on cycles was initiated, and certainly by 1985 some relevant contributions were made in that sense.

The book is constructed dealing first with the theories and then with evidence, although this is limited to the definition of a sample of firms for the computation of a profit index, allowing for dating of cycles.

Thirty years passed and it is now available for a larger public.

Dissertations On Business Cycles Greasy Lake Essays

Yet, Routledge preferred to print it as a facsimile of the original edition, failing to correct the mistyping errors and imposing on the reader the effort to follow a cumbersome presentation.

Unfortunately, he is right for some of the Schumpeterian followers, whose views are eventually too limited to the technological side and to simple changes in the supply side.

But this does not make justice to other evolutionary contributions, namely those considering the socio-institutional framework and arguing for a theory based on ignition of change through innovations (Schumpeter), but also considering the institutional and social framework (Veblen, Marx) and the demand side (Keynes), or the mismatch between the technology and social conditions (Chris Freeman).

We show that looking at the dynamics of inventories, so far neglected in this literature, cleanly isolates the role of news shocks in driving business cycles.

In particular, inventory dynamics provide an upper bound on the explanatory power of news shocks.


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